Global political dynamics used to be quite staid compared to the intimate and volatile microcosms of specific fragile, or complex, countries. That is no longer the case, and we keep a close eye on the geopolitical landscape as a matter of course. 

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We decided to start sharing our geopolitical thoughts, both for readers’ benefit and to help us to build, test and revise our own cognitive map.

 

There is already plenty of news and commentary out there. But for users, it can be like diving into a soap opera late in the season: we lack an explanation of how things got that way and the central dynamics driving the plot. Reporting has its place, but we need freewheeling exploration too, since today's situation is going to look very different down the road. 

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There is a niche, then, for a detached, almost remote, perspective which does not assume that the basics are self-evident, and that lessens the weight of prior assumptions and convention on outside thinking.    

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So, what mental gimmick have we used to gain a different point of view? You will see when you click the "NOVI papers" button to the left. 

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As for utility, the NOVI reports are not risk assessments, since they are for a broad audience and different organisations’ concerns and exposures vary. We would suggest that they are useful, along with other sources, for developing clear reference points. That in turn can help with targeted intelligence assessments aimed at preparing for change.

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As a final preliminary note, a useful accompaniment to this material would be our occasional paper, A Geopolitical Risk Assessment for One Company? A Thought Experiment (October 2024). That can help bridge general insights like the NOVI papers, and more pointed assessments for a specific organisation.