Some real challenges faced by international managers form a useful prelude to our introduction of global uncertainty: 

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• Before Russia invaded Ukraine we knew we’d have serious problems if it happened, but if we reduced exposure and nothing happened we’d have shot ourselves in the foot. In the end, we waited too long and it’s been a scramble ever since.

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• We’re well embedded in both the US and China, and recent trade friction, not to mention the wider potential for conflict, has been fraying nerves. We’re betting that managed tension ultimately continues for a while, but it’s a high stakes bet and we’re not especially confident.

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• We have our own core principles and sustainability and ESG are among them, but as left-right polarisation increases, we have to wonder if the link between these and our brand could start to look like a political statement – and we have no idea what might mean on a practical level… 

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Since the end of the Cold War, the global system has increasingly resembled an unstable and fractious country, where fluid, transactional alliances and power plays drive acute volatility.

 

The number of global players and the pressures shaping their behaviour have been expanding, and the causal links between them are dense and dynamic. That means complexity, and the practical result of that is uncertainty.

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Sensing relevant changes and what they could mean for the organisation is daunting. Yet it is also essential, since rivalries, conflicts, trade wars and shifts in socio-political attitudes can rapidly affect supply and value chains, financial flows, market access, security, and overall strategic resilience.

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Harmattan helps organisations to build and sharpen their ability to make sense of and manage geopolitical uncertainty, whether at the strategic level or with respect to specific initiatives.

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You can learn more about the relevant services using the buttons at the top of the page or just below. 

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