Global insight papers are listed further down the page. First, though, a brief introduction is in order. 

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Global political dynamics used to be quite staid compared to the intimate and volatile microcosms of specific fragile, or complex, countries. That is no longer the case, and we keep a close eye on the geopolitical landscape as a matter of course. 

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In late 2025, we decided to start sharing our geopolitical thoughts, both for readers’ benefit and to help us to build, test and revise our own cognitive map of issues that we need to be aware of. We might not be "reporters" but we still need a strong sense of the global context in which our client's problems are situated.

 

There is already plenty of news and commentary out there. But for users, it can be like diving into a soap opera late in the season: we lack an explanation of how things got that way and the central dynamics driving the plot. Reporting has its place, but we need freewheeling exploration too, since today's situation is going to look very different down the road. 

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There is a niche, then, for a detached perspective which does not assume that the basics are self-evident, and that lessens the weight of prior assumptions and convention on outside thinking. This is the niche that our global insights fit into.    

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When reading papers herein, readers will occasionally see a NOVI paper. This is a device that we occasionally use to help gain a remote perspective from the issue in question, and it also allows for a more discursive "back and forth" between a hypothetical questioner and answerer. NOVI refers to New Off-World Ventures Intelligence, and it is the agency of an extraterrestrial government charged with providing insights for off-world investments, trade and development assistance. 

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As a final preliminary note, a useful accompaniment to this material would be our occasional paper, A Geopolitical Risk Assessment for One Company? A Thought Experiment (October 2024). That can help bridge general insights for a broad audience, and more pointed assessments for a specific organisation.

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The global insight papers are listed below, from recent to older. When you click on a title in bold, the paper opens in a separate window in PDF format. 

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​Iran - Questions and Hypotheses as of Mid-March 2026 (standing back to get clarity on why the conflict happened, what the plan is, where it might go, and what it might mean for the US and its role in the world), March 2026

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The World's Wildcard Lynchpin - Trying to Make Sense of a Trump-led US as a Global Actor  (an effort to get beyond the emotion and hype to clarify US behaviour in Trump's second term, and the thinking behind it), February 2026

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Europe's Predicament (threats and challenges facing Europe, why and how Europe got into this situation, what Europe is doing about it, barriers to resilience, and indicative outlooks, with drill-downs on key issues), January 2026 

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The China-West Rivalry (its roots, why it intensified in recent years, each side’s reasons to confront the other, what they hope to achieve, how it is playing out, and where it might go), December 2025

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Western Incohesion (why the West as a global political actor is no longer a cohesive bloc, the key schisms within it, and the implications of incohesion), December 2025

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The International System (its shape, key dynamics, how it got this way, and what could drive change), December 2025

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